The Universe is the Future: The Dawn of Space Mining
After decades of stagnation, space exploration is not only resurging but entering a new era of vigorous growth. Advances in technology, reduced costs, and the competitive vigor brought by private enterprises have once again put space activities in the spotlight. Indeed, many analysts believe that the commercial development of the space industry might soon usher in the largest resource extraction boom in history: mining on the Moon, Mars, and asteroids.
Though it may sound fantastical, some initial steps towards this goal have already been taken. In 2020, the Chang'e 5 mission by China returned samples of basalt from the Moon's Oceanus Procellarum, reigniting global enthusiasm for lunar exploration. The same year, NASA contracted four companies to extract small amounts of lunar regolith by 2024, effectively kick-starting the era of commercial space mining.
Whether these space endeavors will become a significant adjunct to Earth's mining industry, or more directly, a key to economically viable space travel, hinges on answers to several questions, such as which resources can be efficiently mined.
As every sci-fi enthusiast knows, the resources of the solar system appear nearly limitless compared to those on Earth. With other planets, dozens of moons, thousands of large asteroids, and millions of smaller ones, they undoubtedly hold vast quantities of materials that are scarce and extremely valuable on Earth. Entrepreneurs like Musk and Bezos envision moving heavy industry into space while Earth becomes a residential zone. However, extracting space resources remains bound by economic realities and governance rules when they aim to utilize the wealth beyond our atmosphere.
First off, space does not belong to any one country, complicating traditional methods of resource allocation, property rights, and trade. Given the limited demand for materials in space itself and the immense energy required to return materials to Earth, significant advancements in technology, finance, and business models are necessary to make this industry feasible.
Despite these challenges, potential pioneers are not standing still. The economic, scientific, and even security benefits are sparking a new geopolitical race for space mining. The U.S. aims to lead, partly due to its ambitious Artemis Program, which aims to return humans to the Moon with an international coalition. Additionally, the U.S. leads in establishing legal frameworks for mineral exploitation, having passed the world's first space resource law acknowledging private ownership of materials collected in space.
However, the U.S. isn't alone in this venture. Countries like Luxembourg and the United Arab Emirates are also rushing to draft their own space resource laws, hoping to attract investment through favorable legal frameworks to become commercial hubs. Russia, Japan, India, and the European Space Agency have their own space mining ambitions. The current governance of these emerging interests is based on an outdated Cold War-era treaty framework, suggesting that humanity will soon need new agreements to foster private investment and ensure international cooperation.
What's in Space?
It's important to clarify that space has already been extensively utilized for non-material assets like orbital slots and ample sunlight, enabling satellites to serve Earth. Indeed, satellite-based telecommunications and global positioning systems have become indispensable infrastructure supporting the modern economy. Mining physical materials from space, however, is a different matter.
Planetary science over the past decades has confirmed long-held speculations: celestial bodies are potential sources of dozens of natural materials, which could be invaluable at the right time and place. Among these, water might be the most attractive in the short term; with solar or nuclear fission aiding, water (H₂O) can be split into hydrogen and oxygen for rocket fuel, facilitating in-space refueling. "Rare earth" metals are another target for asteroid miners aiming at Earth markets, composed of 17 elements (largely mined in China with high environmental costs), essential for electronics and potentially a bottleneck in the transition from fossil fuels to battery-supported renewable energy.
The Moon is a primary target for space mining. Driven by NASA's mining tenders, it's likely to be the first commercial mining site. The Moon offers several advantages: it's relatively close, with a rocket journey taking just days, and communication delays are only seconds, small enough for Earth-based personnel to remotely operate robots. The Moon's low gravity means less energy is needed to transport mined resources to Earth's orbit.
Although the Moon might seem dry, recent probes have confirmed significant water ice in permanently shadowed craters at the poles. Additionally, solar winds have seemingly injected large amounts of helium-3 into the lunar soil near the equator, a potential fuel for second and third-generation fusion reactors expected later this century. With its water and helium-3 reserves, the Moon could be a stepping stone for further solar system exploration.
Asteroids represent another near-term target. Various space rocks whiz around the solar system, carrying different amounts of water, rare earth metals, and other materials. The asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter contains most of these, many over a kilometer in diameter. Despite their potential wealth, their distance from Earth, requiring significant travel time and energy, currently places them out of short-term reach.
Even the surfaces of celestial bodies pose challenges for mining machinery, being composed of loose rock material called regolith, rather than the soil we're more familiar with on Earth.
Therefore, aspiring asteroid miners look to smaller near-Earth asteroids. Though farther than the Moon, they require less energy to reach— some so small that, technically, they could be dragged into Earth's orbit for mining.
Space mining could be crucial for manned Mars exploration missions. Given Mars' distance and relatively higher gravity (twice that of the Moon), extracting and exporting minerals back to Earth seems highly improbable. Instead, most resource extraction on Mars would focus on supplying exploration missions, refueling spacecraft, and supporting settlement construction.
Technology is Key
The prospects of space mining benefit from technological advancements across the entire space industry. The emergence of reusable rocket components and widespread use of off-the-shelf parts are lowering launch and operational costs. Private companies, once limited to government contracts and satellite launches, now lead in "New Space" activities — a term encompassing orbital tourism, manufacturing in orbit, and microsatellites providing specialized services. With private investment skyrocketing, the space sector's market value currently stands at $400 billion, potentially growing to $1 trillion by 2040.
Despite commercial advancements, governments still lead in cutting-edge space resource technology. The U.S. first extracted extraterrestrial material during the Apollo missions, followed by the USSR in unmanned lunar missions. Former President Biden used an Apollo Moon rock in the Oval Office, highlighting the awe deep space can still inspire.
Currently, the aim is to collect scientific samples. In December 2020, Japan's Hayabusa2 brought back samples from the asteroid Ryugu, and that month, China's Chang'e 5 mission returned the first lunar samples since the 1970s.
Sample collection is accelerating, with near-term missions targeting Mars. Japan plans to visit Mars' two moons and extract samples from one, while NASA's Perseverance rover will collect and store drilled samples on Mars for eventual return to Earth. Perseverance also carries equipment for the unique MOXIE experiment to produce oxygen on Mars, potentially used for breathing by astronauts or as fuel for spacecraft.
For commercial space mining to be viable, the scale must be much larger than scientific mining. So far, all collected samples total less than a ton, while a single mining operation must handle hundreds or thousands of tons.
In summary, space mining operations follow stages similar to terrestrial mining: exploration, extraction, processing, and distribution to users. However, the unique conditions of outer space make this process far more challenging. Most space mining targets have little to no atmosphere and experience extreme temperature changes between shadow and sunlight. Radiation from solar and cosmic sources permeates the space environment, threatening electronics — not to mention human health.
Challenges abound. Launching into space is stressful; equipment must withstand high acceleration and acoustic forces. Orbital mechanics and the vast energy required for long-distance travel limit all space missions to minimal payloads. Deep space missions occur in microgravity — a challenge for asteroid mining — or under the reduced gravity of the Moon or Mars. Even the surface materials, composed of loose regolith, challenge mining equipment designed for Earth's soil.
The most basic technologies needed for space mining are as simple as shovels and drills. However, for water and other volatiles, more specialized techniques can be used: on the Moon, thermal mining sublimates ice directly into vapor, captured in a tent. A startup, TransAstra, proposes a similar but larger-scale method for small asteroids, capturing volatiles in bags enveloping the entire asteroid.
Remember, after collecting space resources, there must be supply chains to deliver these materials to customers. If interested in details, check out the 2018 report "Commercial Lunar Propellant Architecture," describing a mining cycle where water is extracted on the Moon, turned into fuel, and delivered to client spacecraft.
Before actual operations costing billions, public and private investors will spend millions testing plans in environments simulating outer space conditions. Regolith simulants, vacuum chambers, computer modeling, and other aerospace test equipment are needed to validate mining techniques in space. Beyond space-specific technologies, advancements in other fields can aid space mining missions, including additive manufacturing (3D printing) for base construction support, AI for operating robots, and nuclear power reactors for providing substantial energy.
The Economics of Mining the Cosmos
Talk of economic value in space mining often sounds hyperbolic. Headlines mention asteroids like "16 Psyche," a 226 km diameter rock, whose iron and nickel resources are valued at $10 quadrillion (10,000 times Earth's GDP) at current commodity prices.
Setting aside the hyperbole, there is indeed "gold" in space (water? helium-3? praseodymium?). American astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson famously predicted that the world's first trillionaire would be a space miner. Many luminaries seem to agree: major private participants in space (including Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Richard Branson) are billionaires ready to invest heavily, potentially adding zeros to their net worth.
However, there's a common jest in the industry: the best way to become a millionaire in space is to start as a billionaire. Even with recent commercial progress, launching payloads into space remains costly, and demand elasticity for mined space resources is uncertain. All "New Space" activities, particularly mining, face a chicken-and-egg problem: without miners providing materials, there won't be customers. But without customers, there's no incentive to mine.
Even NASA's tender for extracting lunar regolith and selling samples to the agency underscores the nascent nature of mining: NASA pays no more than $15,000 for half a kilogram, a tiny fraction of such missions' costs. Large asteroid valuations like "16 Psyche" do not reflect market realities, as transporting vast amounts of commodities like platinum or gold would crash market prices. These metals' markets are small by mass, and it's unclear if Earth's markets can provide enough demand to justify the fixed costs of space mining activities.
Broadly, space resources can be used in two ways: returned to Earth or utilized in space. Early startups like Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries focused on mining metals for sale back on Earth. Market uncertainty was a major factor in these industry leaders' decline.
Long-term, in-space production for Earth might drive massive growth in the space sector — not through commodities competing with Earth production but through special products: materials and alloys manufactured in microgravity, large satellite services like space-based solar power, or unique products like helium-3. The latter two are especially promising, potentially contributing significantly to global decarbonization post-2050.
In the short term, resources found in space will likely stay in space. Using in-situ resources to support manned and robotic exploration — possibly on the Moon in the 2020s, Mars in the 2030s — is the most promising way to kick-start space mining. Building lunar bases with local materials can significantly reduce mass requirements. If water-based propellants can be developed competitively, they might find ready markets in spacecraft traveling from low Earth orbit to geosynchronous or deep space orbits.
Of course, all discussions on the economic value of space resources assume that property rights are clearly defined and protected. Space law regarding ownership is rapidly evolving, but many issues persist, exacerbating economic uncertainties.
You're Stepping on My Regolith
As human industrial activities expand to the space frontier, disputes over ownership and governance follow. Outer space is beyond any nation's territorial jurisdiction, meaning international law forms the basis of space law and resource law. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty is the principal governing treaty of international space law, prohibiting nations from claiming sovereignty over celestial bodies like the Moon or asteroids. Whether this treaty allows space mining remains highly debated.
Drafted at the height of the Cold War to prevent an arms race and "land" grabs in space, the treaty did not foresee today's private and commercial enterprises. The non-appropriation clause prevents countries from claiming ownership by planting flags or occupying areas. However, it does not explicitly ban owning and using resources extracted from celestial bodies; in fact, other parts of the treaty suggest such use is permitted.
Past and ongoing missions by the U.S., USSR, Japan, and China to retrieve scientific samples have never faced serious challenges for breaching this treaty. The second international treaty explicitly addressing global governance of commercial space mining, the Moon Agreement, has been widely rejected by most countries — including all those with the capability and motivation for space mining.
The U.S. has long believed the Outer Space Treaty allows for commercial resource extraction. It leads in establishing space mining as permissible under both national and international law. Recognizing the ambitions of Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries, in 2015, the U.S. Congress passed and President Obama signed the world's first national space resource law.
This law recognizes U.S. citizens' ownership of materials collected in outer space but does not claim U.S. or private ownership of celestial bodies themselves. While property rights are now secured, the U.S. has yet to establish a clear regulatory system to authorize such operations.
Building on these early activities, the Trump administration integrated space mining into broader space exploration priorities, particularly through support for the Artemis Program to return astronauts to the Moon. An executive order in April 2020 reaffirmed U.S. commitment to property rights in space resource development, rejecting the Moon Agreement and seeking international cooperation. Other governmental activities have laid groundwork for space mining, including national policies on planetary protection and space nuclear power.
Other nations are following suit, crafting space resource laws and policies. As mentioned, Luxembourg passed its own space mining law, prioritizing space resources and forging partnerships with space agencies worldwide. The UAE is moving towards similar legislation, seeing space as part of this oil-rich nation's modernization plan. Japan, continuing its scientific sampling missions, is currently considering its own space mining law.
The ungoverned nature of outer space and the lack of national ownership clearly increase the potential for conflict. Even if companies have rights to resources once extracted, they don't necessarily have rights to in-situ resources. If companies from different countries want to mine in the same area, technically, both are allowed. "First come, first served" might apply to one nation's activities but can't prevent enterprises from other countries from building mines nearby, introducing economic and operational risks. Space's international nature exacerbates the lack of ownership, as disputes between companies of different countries can become international relations issues.
To address these challenges, the U.S. negotiated the Artemis Accords in 2020, a multilateral agreement guiding near-term lunar exploration. Currently, 53 countries have signed, including the UK, Luxembourg, UAE, Australia, Canada, Japan, Italy, and Ukraine. Many provisions naturally extend from the Outer Space Treaty, like interoperability between nations' space technologies.
However, other aspects of the Accords are contentious. They currently exclude major space powers like Russia, China, and India. The Accords stipulate "safety zones" around mining sites, raising concerns about excluding other nations from prime areas and de facto national appropriation.
Beyond resource governance, "New Space" activities raise environmental issues. In low Earth orbit, the primary environmental threat to astronauts and satellites is not the harsh conditions of space but space debris from decades of loosely regulated activities. Increasing space junk, coupled with the advent of mega-constellations like SpaceX's Starlink, is making orbits increasingly crowded and raising collision risks. These mega-constellations also negatively impact astronomical research through light pollution. Moon pollution might not be far behind.
An emerging issue is the unauthorized transport of micro-organisms like tardigrades (which can survive extreme conditions) to the Moon by the nonprofit Arch Mission Foundation in 2019, raising concerns among astrobiologists about planetary protection. These early space environmental issues, with a lack of clear policy solutions, are harbingers of future space environmental disputes.
The environmental impact of space mining activities remains speculative but could endanger manned and robotic missions. Apollo missions demonstrated that landing or launching on the Moon could eject regolith far and wide, even into lunar orbit. Regolith is abrasive, and without an atmosphere to slow or disperse it, ejected particles can damage distant spacecraft. Mining operations themselves could also raise regolith dust issues.
More broadly, mining could pollute local areas, diminishing their scientific value. With proposals to use bacteria for space mining, the tardigrade incident raises concerns about how commercial activities might complicate the search for extraterrestrial life or threaten fragile alien ecosystems with invasive species brought by humans.
Solutions are emerging. In December 2020, the U.S. led Congress to pass the "One Small Step to Protect Human Heritage in Space Act," providing preliminary protection for Apollo and lunar heritage sites, setting a framework for future environmental and societal protections.
The Century of Space Mining?
Though uncertainties are high, space mining is poised to significantly accelerate space exploration and drive Earth's economic growth. While industrial activities in space might conflict with scientific priorities, the infrastructure developed — like orbital refueling, reduced mission costs, space manufacturing, and a deeper understanding of how to operate in extraterrestrial environments — can serve scientific research.
Undoubtedly, there will be many twists and turns on the path to these goals. Just decades ago, the space industry, particularly space mining, was easily dismissed as science fiction, but the landscape has shifted dramatically. Now, it's clear that space mining — and the associated exploration and industrialization — is on the horizo